![]() The original best model was CLIPER (Climate and Persistence). The National Hurricane Center released a report card on how well the agency predicted hurricanes last year and ranked the best-performing forecast models. They want to think science is always right," Gladwin said. To predict the path of these storms, meteorologists can use many different models. Gladwin said it's unclear why some people fixate on track model plots even when they're not sure what all the scribbles mean. The GFS underperformed compared with the Euro, which correctly forecast Sandy's track toward the East Coast.Ĭonsensus models - when the forecaster takes top-performing models and averages them - usually outperform the Euro, Franklin said. This study employs a refined hurricane track model with improved modelling of hurricane movement for wind data preparation. It is being run on a supercomputer that got a multimillion-dollar brain boost after Superstorm Sandy devastated the Northeast in October 2012, exposing limitations of the GFS model. #HURRICANE TRACK MODEL UPGRADE#This year, the GFS (the new American model) got an upgrade that in tests improved track and intensity forecasts by 10 to 15% and increased by 36 hours the ability to predict a forming tropical cyclone. Sometimes 6Z best track data may not be available for weaker storms. ![]() A scary trend: Major hurricanes in October and November - why is it happening? ![]()
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